The Gluskin Sheff economist lays it all out in this end-of-year report. Click “Fullscreen” below to read the report. Subscribe to Rosenberg’s free daily emails here.

Special Report Year Ahead 121609


Some take-aways:

- Mainstream economists called this downturn “The Great Recession”. But this is truly a gentle way of saying “Depression”

- Perhaps inflation is a consensus forecast, but deflation is the present day reality

- We believe that the dominant focus this coming year will be on capital preservation and income orientation

He sums up the buy-side consensus like this:

At the outset, let it be known that when I read everyone else’s year-ahead prognostications, all I can think of is, “where do I store this stuff for a year so I can look back and say ‘That was so wrong!’.” It’s not that the reports are always bullish every year; it is that they seem so contrived. And, as I mentioned in the December 10th edition of Breakfast with Dave, this year, probably like most years, there seems to be a remarkable level of agreement. Based on my reading, here is what I conclude the consensus views are as we head into 2010:

- Having read various Year-Ahead Reports, it sure seems like there is a remarkable level of agreement for 2010

- Muted recovery, but positive growth, for sure! No risk of a ‘double dip’.

- Equity markets up!

- A barbell strategy of domestic multinational blue chips and emerging market equities.

- The U.S. dollar is…neutral, but we did locate more bulls than bears (so much for the ‘carry trade’ thesis).

- Positive on commodities for the most part.

- Concerned about government balance sheets, and therefore…

…Bearish on long term government bonds because they are the ‘competition’ and, after all, who would tie their money up for 10 years at 3.5% when you can lose 22% in stocks? And, therefore…

…Bullish on spread product (as long as it’s not long-term). And, therefore…

…Really comfortable with high yield (just for the coupon and the view that default rates will come down).

- Certain that volatility will not be an impediment.

- The Fed will begin to raise rates in the second half of the year, but that this will have no impact since they will still be low.

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